Live board · odds as of 2026-10-26 04:32 UTC

Live geopolitical risk dashboard: war odds vs markets

Geopolitical risk, priced. Every morning.

SHORT ANSWER

As of 2026-10-26 04:32 UTC, GeoShockBoard tracks 5 live flashpoints. Our widest gap with Polymarket is “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?”: crowd 18.5%, ours 5%. Of 39 past geopolitical shocks in our dataset, 37 have oil data; their median 5-session oil move was +0.20%. Market context, not investment advice.

WHAT I'D CHANGE MY MIND ON

Hormuz reopening. If Kpler's 7-day Hormuz average is at or above 14,000 kbd for two consecutive briefings (dataset: Kpler media briefings; last print 12,653 kbd, flows as of 21 Oct), I'd raise my 8% call that Hormuz traffic is back to normal by Dec 31.
Red Sea spreading. If UKMTO confirms a Houthi hit on a merchant ship that isn't Saudi-linked (dataset: UKMTO weekly overview; none as of 23 Oct), I'd raise my 10% call that Bab el-Mandeb is effectively closed by Dec 31.
Ukraine talks with teeth. If the trilateral talks convene with a written ceasefire-sequencing document (dataset: wire reporting on the Abu Dhabi talks; no document as of this week), I'd raise my 10% call on a ceasefire agreement by Dec 31.

Odds snapshot as of 2026-10-26 04:32 UTC (Polymarket; ours = GeoShockBoard judgment)

US/Israel–Iran: ceasefire & Strait of Hormuz

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? — December 31: crowd 27.5%, GeoShockBoard 20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: crowd 11.5%, GeoShockBoard 8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: crowd 18.5%, GeoShockBoard 5%

Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb: Houthi–Saudi war

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? — December 31: crowd 16.5%, GeoShockBoard 10%
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...? — December 31: crowd 20.5%, GeoShockBoard 15%
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...? — December 31: crowd 20.5%, GeoShockBoard 20%

Israel–Hezbollah & the 27 Oct Israeli election

Israel military action against Beirut by...? — October 31: crowd 6.0%, GeoShockBoard 10%
Will Hezbollah disarm by...? — December 31: crowd 5.5%, GeoShockBoard 3%
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? — Gadi Eizenkot: crowd 52.8%, GeoShockBoard no view

Russia–Ukraine: talks track vs strike war

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? — December 31: crowd 16.5%, GeoShockBoard 10%
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? — November 30: crowd 71.0%, GeoShockBoard 70%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: crowd 8.5%, GeoShockBoard 5%

Taiwan Strait & AI-chip controls

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: crowd 2.5%, GeoShockBoard 2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: crowd 3.9%, GeoShockBoard 4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: crowd 1.8%, GeoShockBoard 1%

Live flashpoints · prediction-market odds · game-theory reads · what history says markets do next. Odds refresh live from Polymarket; prices are a snapshot at build time.

Market context, not investment advice. "Crowd" figures are Polymarket prices. "Ours" figures are GeoShockBoard judgment and are logged on the track record. Historical base rates describe the past, have small samples, and do not predict future moves.

01 · Live situations odds snapshot at build time

02 · Catalyst calendar next 60 days · sourced

03 · Shock playbook base rates · events 1990–2026

Horizon:Stat:

Each cell is the median move from the last close before the event to the Nth session after (n = sample size; ↑% = share of events where it rose). VIX is in index points; everything else is %. Oil = Brent front-month (BZ=F) from Aug 2007, WTI (CL=F) before that. USD/ILS up = weaker shekel.

Full event dataset ( events) with per-event moves and sources

04 · Exposure checker which live situations hit your book?

Pick the assets you hold or trade. For each live situation we take its historical analog event types and compute the median move and hit rate for your assets.

Horizon:

Covered assets only: arbitrary tickers need a market-data API and are planned.

05 · Live pulse Israel incident desk · embedded from israelfeeds.com

Live sources

Israel Feeds: rocket alerts, incident ledger, source-weighted threat level
The Two Straits: weekly Red Sea and Hormuz game-theory dashboard
Polymarket: odds on this page refresh every 60s

Static vs live: live = prediction-market odds (in your browser, every 60s) and the Israel Feeds embed. Static = price tape and base rates (snapshot built 2026-10-26 06:32 IDT from Yahoo Finance daily closes), situation briefs and the calendar (written 22 Oct 2026 from the cited reports).

Weekly: ranked geopolitical narratives, crowd odds vs our calls, next week's catalysts.

00 · Shock Radar #1 weekly · 22 Oct 2026 · Subscribe to Shock Radar → · back to live board ↑

GEOSHOCKBOARD / SHOCK RADAR

SHOCK RADAR
EDITION #1

22 OCT 2026 • EVIDENCE WINDOW 15–22 OCT

Published 22 Oct 2026. Brent and Hormuz figures refresh from their sources on every build (Brent as of 26 Oct, Hormuz flows as of 21 Oct); other figures are as of the date shown. Corrected 25 Oct: see corrections.

THESIS | Energy chokepoints, not front lines, are where geopolitics is being priced: Hormuz and Saudi infrastructure carry the risk premium, while the market prices the ceasefires as more likely to break than hold by year-end.

28.5%

US–Iran ceasefire holds to Dec 31

POLYMARKET · AS OF 22 OCT 09:19 IDT · T1

−26%

Hormuz flows vs pre-war

KPLER 7D AVG 12,653 KBD · AS OF 21 OCT (BRIEFING 23 OCT) · T1

+4.5%

Brent Dec '26, 19 Oct→26 Oct

109.55 → 114.50 SETTLE · AS OF 26 OCT · BZZ26.NYM · T1

01 / RANKED NARRATIVES Evidence scores /10 (editorial) · not return forecasts

HORMUZ AS BARGAINING CHIP (US–IRAN)
CAPITAL Brent Dec '26 +4.5% on the week to $114.50 (19 Oct→26 Oct settles, Yahoo BZZ26.NYM); crowd odds the US–Iran ceasefire survives to Dec 31 were 28.5% (73.5% to Oct 31) on Polymarket as of 22 Oct.
BEHAVIOR Iran conditions reopening on its 7-day package (blockade lifted, sanctions eased, assets released); ≥18 vessels reportedly attacked in 2 weeks; talks run via Pakistan/Qatar.
Veto: a sequenced blockade-for-reopening deal, with Hormuz flows back near the 17,147 kbd pre-war baseline (Kpler media briefing, 23 Oct 2026).
Sources: Arab News · Kpler · Polymarket

9.5 ↑↑

SAUDI OIL INFRASTRUCTURE UNDER FIRE
CAPITAL Houthi strike on Aramco HQ in Dhahran (13 Oct); Bab el-Mandeb 'effectively closed by Dec 31' priced at 15.5% (Polymarket, as of 22 Oct).
BEHAVIOR Drone attack attempt on Shaybah kills 2; US orders non-emergency staff out of Saudi Arabia; Egypt votes on 26 Oct on military support.
Veto: a Saudi–Houthi ceasefire (30.5% by Dec 31 on Polymarket as of 22 Oct) or Houthi targeting staying narrow.
Sources: Kpler · Khaleej Times · L'Orient Today

9.0 ↑↑

ISRAEL'S ELECTION SETS THE IRAN/LEBANON PATH
CAPITAL Polymarket next-PM race as of 22 Oct: Eisenkot 50.1% (market label 'Gadi Eizenkot'), Netanyahu 26.5%, Bennett 16%; TA-35 4,156.68 → 4,212.13 (15→21 Oct).
BEHAVIOR Netanyahu says regime overthrow is the order given to the army; Lebanon–Israel military-technical talks at CENTCOM in Tampa; Hezbollah reportedly rebuilding in Beirut.
Veto: the vote is delayed, or a coalition commits to the US-sequenced Lebanon framework.
Sources: L'Orient Today · Anadolu · Algemeiner

8.5 ↑

RED SEA BOXES RETURN DESPITE RISK
CAPITAL Container carriers are steadily returning through Suez; Freightos expects full recovery in Q1.
BEHAVIOR Houthi blockade of Saudi-linked ships in force since 20 Jul (6 ships attacked); Saudi-backed forces retook Mocha.
Veto: a Houthi hit on a non-Saudi container ship.
Sources: Freightos · World Ports Org

7.5 →

UKRAINE: TALKS ABOUT TALKS
CAPITAL Ceasefire agreement by Dec 31 priced at 20.5%; peace talks held by Nov 30 at 64% (Polymarket, as of 22 Oct).
BEHAVIOR Putin 'in principle' ready for trilateral talks after Nov 10; the Kremlin sees little 'substance'; strikes continue on both sides.
Veto: talks actually convene with a ceasefire sequence on the table.
Sources: CNA · DW · Polymarket

6.5 →

TAIWAN CHIP-CONTROL ALIGNMENT
CAPITAL SOXX 519.42 → 510.36 (14→21 Oct); China blockade of Taiwan in 2026 priced at 2.1% (Polymarket, as of 22 Oct).
BEHAVIOR Taiwan plans to add AI servers and advanced chips to its export-control list; once in force, unlicensed shipments to China could be prosecuted under the Foreign Trade Act. No bill or implementation date yet (Bloomberg Law, Taiwan News, 16 Oct). The PLA's Nov–Dec drill season is ahead.
Veto: the rule is delayed indefinitely, or a Trump–Xi APEC deal loosens controls.
Sources: Bloomberg Law, 16 Oct · Taiwan News, 16 Oct

6.0 ↑

02 / SIGNAL VS NOISE

SIGNAL
Attacks on ships and Saudi oil sites (Kpler, Khaleej Times); Hormuz flow data; Brent +4.5% on the week (Dec '26, as of 26 Oct); US staff drawdown from Saudi Arabia; Egypt's war-powers vote set for a date.

NOISE
Campaign rhetoric on 'overthrowing' Iran (pre-election, costless); 'closest we've been' on Ukraine (no concession attached); routine PLA drills described as 'not directed at any country'.

03 / HISTORY SAYS

Analog type (+5 sessions, median · hit rate)	Oil	ITA	S&P 500	TA-35
Shipping/energy hits (n=7)	+3.08% · 86%↑	+0.84% · 86%↑	+0.75% · 57%↑	+2.17% · 71%↑
Strike exchanges (n=9)	+1.82% · 56%↑	+1.13% · 78%↑	−1.15% · 33%↑	+0.25% · 56%↑
Export controls/tariffs (n=5)	+0.16% · 80%↑	−2.30% · 40%↑	−3.58% · 20%↑	−1.87% · 40%↑
Shipping hits have been the most reliable oil signal; after strike exchanges the S&P 500 dipped at +5 sessions but rose at +20 sessions in 89% of cases (median +1.94%). Dataset: 39 events 1990–2026, Yahoo Finance daily closes; full playbook. Small samples; the past does not predict.

04 / NEXT WEEK • 23–30 OCT (+ early Nov)

26 Oct	Egypt parliament votes on military support for Saudi Arabia
27 Oct	Israeli election
31 Oct	Polymarket ceasefire markets 'through Oct 31' resolve
1 Nov	OPEC+ (7 countries) meeting on December output
3 Nov	US midterms

Sources and the full 60-day calendar: geoshockboard.vercel.app/#cal

HIGHEST CONVICTION / HORMUZ AS BARGAINING CHIP
The crowd gives the US–Iran ceasefire only 28.5% to survive the year, while Hormuz flows at ~74% of the pre-war baseline (Kpler 7-day avg 12,653 kbd vs 17,147; flows as of 21 Oct, briefing 23 Oct). Watch costly moves (strikes, sinkings, blockade sequencing), not campaign rhetoric: those decide whether oil's risk premium widens or collapses.

Evidence window 15–22 Oct 2026 · Prices: Yahoo Finance · Odds: Polymarket, 22 Oct 09:19 IDT · Market context, not investment advice. GSB SR #1 · 2026.10.22

07 · Track record every GeoShockBoard call vs the crowd · Brier score at resolution

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GeoShockBoard is market context, not investment advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security or contract. Data: Yahoo Finance chart API (daily closes), Polymarket Gamma API (public odds), and the news sources cited in each item. Verify before relying on any figure.