updated 2026-10-26 04:32 UTC
Track record: every GeoShockBoard call vs the Polymarket crowd
17 calls logged, 0 resolved. Brier scores (ours vs crowd) are published as markets resolve; the first resolutions are due 31 Oct 2026.
Calls
| Logged | Call (exact Polymarket market) | Ours | Crowd at log | Crowd now | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | US–Iran ceasefire holds through Dec 31 | 30% | 28.5% | 27.5% | open |
| 2026-10-22 | Hormuz traffic back to normal by Dec 31 | 8% | 11.5% | 11.5% | open |
| 2026-10-22 | US invades Iran before 2027 | 5% | 15.5% | 18.5% | open |
| 2026-10-22 | Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by Dec 31 | 10% | 15.5% | 16.5% | open |
| 2026-10-22 | Saudi–Houthi ceasefire announced by Dec 31 | 20% | 30.5% | 20.5% | open |
| 2026-10-22 | Perim Island out of Houthi control by Dec 31 | 20% | 20.5% | 20.5% | open |
| 2026-10-22 | Israeli military action against Beirut by Oct 31 | 10% | 12.5% | 6.0% | open |
| 2026-10-22 | Hezbollah disarms by Dec 31 | 3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | open |
| 2026-10-22 | Ceasefire agreement by Dec 31 | 10% | 20.0% | 16.5% | open |
| 2026-10-22 | Peace talks held by Nov 30 | 60% | 64.0% | 71.0% | open |
| 2026-10-22 | Peace deal signed before 2027 | 5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | open |
| 2026-10-22 | China blockades Taiwan in 2026 | 2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | open |
| 2026-10-22 | China–Taiwan military clash before 2027 | 4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | open |
| 2026-10-22 | China invades Taiwan by end-2026 | 1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | open |
| 2026-10-23 | US–Iran ceasefire holds through Dec 31 | 20% | 32.0% | 27.5% | open |
| 2026-10-23 | Saudi–Houthi ceasefire announced by Dec 31 | 15% | 30.5% | 20.5% | open |
| 2026-10-24 | Peace talks held by Nov 30 | 70% | 75.0% | 71.0% | open |
"Crowd now" is the server snapshot as of 2026-10-26 04:32 UTC, refreshed live in your browser.
Method
Each time GeoShockBoard sets or changes a weight ("ours"), the call is logged with the Polymarket "Yes" price at that moment. At resolution, outcome = 1 (Yes) or 0 (No), and the Brier score is the mean of (probability − outcome)², computed for our weights and for the crowd price at log time. Lower is better. Market context, not investment advice.