LEARN · data updated 2026-10-26 04:32 UTC
How oil reacts to war: 39 geopolitical shocks, 1990–2026
Information, not financial advice. These are historical base rates from a small sample; past reactions do not predict future ones.
The short answer
Across 8 war outbreaks since 1990 with oil data, oil's median move was +1.69% on the first session but -0.95% after 20 sessions, with a range of -15.53% to +55.31%. Shipping and energy-infrastructure hits were more consistent: oil rose after 5 sessions in 86% of 7 cases. Big lasting rises came with real supply loss.
The base-rate table
| Event type | +1 session | +5 sessions | +20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|
| War outbreak | +1.69% ↑62% · n=8 -4.25% to +7.26% | -1.23% ↑38% · n=8 -4.18% to +27.88% | -0.95% ↑50% · n=8 -15.53% to +55.31% |
| Strike exchange | +0.53% ↑56% · n=9 -7.18% to +7.02% | +1.82% ↑56% · n=9 -12.00% to +12.76% | -1.16% ↑33% · n=9 -12.21% to +6.26% |
| Shipping/energy hit | +1.83% ↑86% · n=7 -0.90% to +14.61% | +3.08% ↑86% · n=7 -0.04% to +9.85% | +1.11% ↑83% · n=6 -5.04% to +10.92% |
| Sanctions | +0.30% ↑67% · n=6 -3.38% to +5.43% | +0.35% ↑50% · n=6 -11.07% to +20.61% | -2.55% ↑33% · n=6 -15.30% to +23.20% |
| Export controls/tariffs | +0.28% ↑60% · n=5 -6.42% to +3.71% | +0.16% ↑80% · n=5 -12.64% to +1.32% | -7.95% ↑40% · n=5 -17.10% to +6.20% |
| Taiwan drills | -0.08% ↑50% · n=2 -0.66% to +0.51% | -1.71% ↑0% · n=2 -3.38% to -0.05% | +4.57% ↑100% · n=2 +4.08% to +5.06% |
| All events | +0.64% ↑65% · n=37 -7.18% to +14.61% | +0.20% ↑57% · n=37 -12.64% to +27.88% | -0.11% ↑50% · n=36 -17.10% to +55.31% |
Median % move from the last close before each event to the 1st, 5th and 20th session after; ↑ = share of events where oil rose; n = events with data; range = smallest to largest move. Oil = Brent front-month (BZ=F) from Aug 2007, WTI (CL=F) before that; 1990–91 events have no oil series in Yahoo Finance. 39 events in total, 1990–2026.
When oil kept rising: real supply loss
- US–Israel strikes on Iran begin a regional war (2026-02-28, war outbreak): +55.31% over 20 sessions (+7.26% on day 1). source
- Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine (2022-02-24, war outbreak): +25.57% over 20 sessions (+2.31% on day 1). source
- SWIFT cut-off and freeze of Russian central-bank reserves (2022-02-28, sanctions): +23.20% over 20 sessions (+3.12% on day 1). source
- Gulf of Oman tanker attacks (2019-06-13, shipping/energy hit): +10.92% over 20 sessions (+2.23% on day 1). source
When oil fell after the shock
- 'Liberation Day' tariffs (first session after the Apr 2 post-close announcement) (2025-04-03, export controls/tariffs): -17.10% over 20 sessions (-6.42% on day 1). source
- Huawei added to the Entity List (2019-05-15, export controls/tariffs): -15.82% over 20 sessions (+0.74% on day 1). source
- 9/11 attacks (US markets reopen Sep 17) (2001-09-11, war outbreak): -15.53% over 20 sessions (+6.88% on day 1). source
- US re-imposes Iran oil sanctions (2018-11-05, sanctions): -15.30% over 20 sessions (+0.47% on day 1). source
Today's markets
- Polymarket “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?”: Yes 11.5%, as of 2026-10-26 04:32 UTC. GeoShockBoard: 8%. US/Israel–Iran: ceasefire & Strait of Hormuz
- Polymarket “US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? — December 31”: Yes 27.5%, as of 2026-10-26 04:32 UTC. GeoShockBoard: 20%. US/Israel–Iran: ceasefire & Strait of Hormuz
- Polymarket “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? — December 31”: Yes 16.5%, as of 2026-10-26 04:32 UTC. GeoShockBoard: 10%. Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb: Houthi–Saudi war
- Polymarket “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? — December 31”: Yes 16.5%, as of 2026-10-26 04:32 UTC. GeoShockBoard: 10%. Russia–Ukraine: talks track vs strike war
- Polymarket “Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?”: Yes 1.8%, as of 2026-10-26 04:32 UTC. GeoShockBoard: 1%. Taiwan Strait & AI-chip controls
Prices are trade-implied probabilities from the server snapshot, refreshed live in your browser; markets with similar headlines resolve on different rules.
What this means for today's flashpoints
Live odds and killer tests: Iran & Hormuz · Red Sea & Houthis · Russia–Ukraine · Israel–Hezbollah · China–Taiwan · our track record.
Every event in the dataset
| Date | Event | Type | Oil +1 | Oil +5 | Oil +20 | Series | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001-09-11 | 9/11 attacks (US markets reopen Sep 17) | War outbreak | +6.88% | -3.76% | -15.53% | CL=F | src |
| 2003-03-20 | US-led invasion of Iraq | War outbreak | -4.25% | -4.18% | -2.34% | CL=F | src |
| 2006-07-12 | Israel–Hezbollah war begins | War outbreak | +1.07% | -0.84% | +2.90% | CL=F | src |
| 2008-08-08 | Russia–Georgia war | War outbreak | -3.84% | -3.55% | -11.68% | BZ=F | src |
| 2014-02-27 | Russia seizes Crimea | War outbreak | -0.51% | -1.61% | -2.27% | BZ=F | src |
| 2014-07-29 | EU/US sectoral sanctions on Russia | Sanctions | +0.14% | -2.01% | -4.57% | BZ=F | src |
| 2017-04-07 | US missile strike on Syria's Shayrat airbase | Strike exchange | +0.64% | +1.82% | -10.55% | BZ=F | src |
| 2018-03-22 | Section 301 China tariffs announced | Export controls/tariffs | -0.81% | +0.09% | +6.20% | BZ=F | src |
| 2018-04-14 | US/UK/France strikes on Syria | Strike exchange | -1.60% | +2.04% | +6.26% | BZ=F | src |
| 2018-05-08 | US exits the Iran nuclear deal | Sanctions | -1.73% | +2.70% | -1.04% | BZ=F | src |
| 2018-11-05 | US re-imposes Iran oil sanctions | Sanctions | +0.47% | -3.64% | -15.30% | BZ=F | src |
| 2019-05-15 | Huawei added to the Entity List | Export controls/tariffs | +0.74% | +1.32% | -15.82% | BZ=F | src |
| 2019-06-13 | Gulf of Oman tanker attacks | Shipping/energy hit | +2.23% | +3.08% | +10.92% | BZ=F | src |
| 2019-09-14 | Drone/missile attack on Saudi Abqaiq | Shipping/energy hit | +14.61% | +6.74% | +0.48% | BZ=F | src |
| 2020-01-03 | US kills Qasem Soleimani | Strike exchange | +3.55% | -1.33% | -12.21% | BZ=F | src |
| 2022-02-24 | Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine | War outbreak | +2.31% | +16.62% | +25.57% | BZ=F | src |
| 2022-02-28 | SWIFT cut-off and freeze of Russian central-bank reserves | Sanctions | +3.12% | +20.61% | +23.20% | BZ=F | src |
| 2022-08-02 | Pelosi visits Taiwan; PLA encirclement drills | Taiwan drills | +0.51% | -3.38% | +5.06% | BZ=F | src |
| 2022-10-07 | US advanced-chip export controls on China | Export controls/tariffs | +3.71% | +0.16% | +0.26% | BZ=F | src |
| 2022-12-05 | G7 price cap on Russian oil | Sanctions | -3.38% | -11.07% | -4.06% | BZ=F | src |
| 2023-10-07 | Hamas attack on Israel | War outbreak | +4.22% | +7.46% | +0.37% | BZ=F | src |
| 2023-10-17 | US tightens chip controls | Export controls/tariffs | +0.28% | +0.20% | -7.95% | BZ=F | src |
| 2023-11-19 | Houthis seize the Galaxy Leader | Shipping/energy hit | +2.12% | -0.04% | -5.04% | BZ=F | src |
| 2023-12-18 | Carriers pause Red Sea transits | Shipping/energy hit | +1.83% | +3.29% | +1.74% | BZ=F | src |
| 2024-01-12 | US–UK strikes on the Houthis | Shipping/energy hit | +1.14% | +1.49% | +6.17% | BZ=F | src |
| 2024-04-13 | Iran's first direct attack on Israel | Strike exchange | -0.39% | -3.49% | -8.47% | BZ=F | src |
| 2024-05-23 | PLA 'Joint Sword-2024A' drills | Taiwan drills | -0.66% | -0.05% | +4.08% | BZ=F | src |
| 2024-09-27 | Israel kills Hassan Nasrallah | Strike exchange | +0.53% | +8.41% | +3.88% | BZ=F | src |
| 2024-10-01 | Iran ballistic-missile barrage on Israel | Strike exchange | +2.49% | +12.76% | -0.49% | BZ=F | src |
| 2024-10-26 | Israel's retaliatory strikes on Iran | Strike exchange | -6.09% | -3.88% | -1.16% | BZ=F | src |
| 2025-04-03 | 'Liberation Day' tariffs (first session after the Apr 2 post-close announcement) | Export controls/tariffs | -6.42% | -12.64% | -17.10% | BZ=F | src |
| 2025-06-13 | Israel strikes Iran's nuclear and military sites | Strike exchange | +7.02% | +11.03% | +1.44% | BZ=F | src |
| 2025-06-22 | US strikes Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan | Strike exchange | -7.18% | -12.00% | -10.04% | BZ=F | src |
| 2025-10-23 | US sanctions Rosneft and Lukoil (first session after the post-close announcement) | Sanctions | +5.43% | +3.72% | +1.47% | BZ=F | src |
| 2026-02-28 | US–Israel strikes on Iran begin a regional war | War outbreak | +7.26% | +27.88% | +55.31% | BZ=F | src |
| 2026-07-20 | Houthis announce blockade of Saudi-linked ships | Shipping/energy hit | +1.27% | +9.85% | +0.48% | BZ=F | src |
| 2026-10-13 | Houthi strike hits Aramco HQ in Dhahran | Shipping/energy hit | -0.90% | +2.72% | n/a | BZ=F | src |
Method and limits
Price data: Yahoo Finance daily closes (Brent BZ=F, WTI CL=F). Background on why chokepoints matter: U.S. EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints. Event descriptions link to their own sources in the table above. Event dates use the first session on or after the event (UTC calendar day); two after-close announcements are shifted to the next session. Samples are small (5–9 per type) and regimes differ, so a single event (e.g. 2026, +55.31%) can dominate the range.
FAQ
Does oil go up when a war starts?
Usually on day one, not reliably after. In 8 war outbreaks the median first-session move was +1.69% and oil rose in 62% of cases; after 20 sessions the median was -0.95%.
How long does a war oil spike last?
In this dataset the median war-outbreak gain had faded by 20 sessions (-0.95%, 50% of cases up). Exceptions with lasting rises were 2022 (Russia–Ukraine) and 2026 (US–Israel strikes on Iran).
Why did oil fall after some shocks?
When a shock did not remove supply, or hit demand instead, oil often fell. The largest 20-session declines here followed the 2025 'Liberation Day' tariffs, the 2019 Huawei entity listing, 9/11 and the 2018 Iran sanctions re-imposition.
Which shocks caused lasting oil spikes?
The largest 20-session rises were the 2026 US–Israel strikes on Iran (+55.31%), Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the SWIFT cut-off days later. All three involved real or feared supply loss from major exporters.